For a country apparently in inexorable decline, the UK has a brilliant future ahead of it. It may no longer have an empire, a decent football team, a trustworthy banking system or affordable public debts, but the future still looks bright.
So bright, in fact, that by 2050 Britain will have the largest GDP per capita of any major Western European country, according to Ruth Lea, economic adviser to the Arbuthnot Banking Group.
Brazil may now be bigger than Britain and China and India may continue to streak ahead, but it's not all bad news for Blighty. In Europe, we will be top dog. Número Uno. Nummer eins. υπ 'αριθμόν ένα, as they say in Greece.
We will, in fact, be the new European superpower.
Europe's finest
Arbuthnot isn't the only company claiming big things for the UK in 2050. Last May, HSBC (LSE: HSBA.L - news) predicted the UK will still be the sixth largest economy in the world in 38 years' time, only a fraction smaller than Germany, but bigger than Brazil, Mexico and France. Okay, Brazil has recently overtaken us, but nobody's perfect.
The HSBC report, 'The World in 2050', also predicted we would grow faster than the US, France and Japan, with the UK moving back into surplus by 2020.
UK will have gold in sacks
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS - news) has also been bigging up Britain, claiming we will leapfrog France to be Europe's second biggest economy by 2050 (ninth overall), and will also close the gap on Germany.
By then, we will be the fifth richest country in the world, according to income per head (behind the US, Korea, Japan and France).
So forget 2012, think 2050. It's only 38 years away. And then we'll be rich!
People power
But on what grounds do they justify these outlandish claims? Ruth Lea puts it largely down to demographics. While the flow of the European babies dries up, the UK is spilling out the little ones.
Our working population is set to rise 5% between 2010 and 2050, compared to just 2% in France and a dreadful 25% drop in barren Germany. Italy (21%) and Spain (14%) will also stop squeezing out the workers of the future.
Japan (31%), China (19%) and Russia (27%) will see an even sharper drop in their working populations.
Among Western nations, the prolific US will strike demographic gold, with a 16% increase in its working population. Globally, watch out for India, set for a 45% rise.
In the long term, the numbers are working in our favour.
Dumbing up
We Brits are so used to doing ourselves down that this research will make many suspicious. It's little use having the quantity if we don't have the quality, and British parenting and schooling need to improve markedly if we are to fulfill our destiny as Europe's mid-century superpower.
Much of our healthy birthrates are due to immigrants, who tend to have larger families, at least in the first generation or two. If the Conservatives somehow squeeze immigration levels, birthrates could fall over time.
Still, Britain looks a good investment for the future.
Sorry, Russia
Whither emerging markets in 2050? Some now claim their glory days are over, with the BRICmarkets falling between 20% and 30% over the past 12 months.
Or are they just taking a breather?
Ruth Lea still believes China will be the biggest global economy in 2050. Brazil will also do well. Both will be seen as rich by today's standards. India should also have made "startling progress".
There is bad news for Russia, which will be demographically demolished, along with Germany, Japan and Italy.
Goldman Sachs agrees that China will be number one in 2050, followed by the US, India, Japan, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Germany and the UK.
UK rules OK?
As Ruth Lea admits, anybody predicting how the world will look in 2050 is making "heroic assumptions". By failing to spot Brazil breathing down Britain's neck, HSBC has already gone from hero to zero.
There will be plenty more shocks and surprises over the next 38 years. But if these forecasts are broadly correct, now could be a great entry point for those giants of the future: China, India, Brazil, the US, Korea, Mexico -- and the UK.
Brazil may now be bigger than Britain and China and India may continue to streak ahead, but it's not all bad news for Blighty. In Europe, we will be top dog. Número Uno. Nummer eins. υπ 'αριθμόν ένα, as they say in Greece.
We will, in fact, be the new European superpower.
Europe's finest
Arbuthnot isn't the only company claiming big things for the UK in 2050. Last May, HSBC (LSE: HSBA.L - news) predicted the UK will still be the sixth largest economy in the world in 38 years' time, only a fraction smaller than Germany, but bigger than Brazil, Mexico and France. Okay, Brazil has recently overtaken us, but nobody's perfect.
The HSBC report, 'The World in 2050', also predicted we would grow faster than the US, France and Japan, with the UK moving back into surplus by 2020.
UK will have gold in sacks
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS - news) has also been bigging up Britain, claiming we will leapfrog France to be Europe's second biggest economy by 2050 (ninth overall), and will also close the gap on Germany.
By then, we will be the fifth richest country in the world, according to income per head (behind the US, Korea, Japan and France).
So forget 2012, think 2050. It's only 38 years away. And then we'll be rich!
People power
But on what grounds do they justify these outlandish claims? Ruth Lea puts it largely down to demographics. While the flow of the European babies dries up, the UK is spilling out the little ones.
Our working population is set to rise 5% between 2010 and 2050, compared to just 2% in France and a dreadful 25% drop in barren Germany. Italy (21%) and Spain (14%) will also stop squeezing out the workers of the future.
Japan (31%), China (19%) and Russia (27%) will see an even sharper drop in their working populations.
Among Western nations, the prolific US will strike demographic gold, with a 16% increase in its working population. Globally, watch out for India, set for a 45% rise.
In the long term, the numbers are working in our favour.
Dumbing up
We Brits are so used to doing ourselves down that this research will make many suspicious. It's little use having the quantity if we don't have the quality, and British parenting and schooling need to improve markedly if we are to fulfill our destiny as Europe's mid-century superpower.
Much of our healthy birthrates are due to immigrants, who tend to have larger families, at least in the first generation or two. If the Conservatives somehow squeeze immigration levels, birthrates could fall over time.
Still, Britain looks a good investment for the future.
Sorry, Russia
Whither emerging markets in 2050? Some now claim their glory days are over, with the BRICmarkets falling between 20% and 30% over the past 12 months.
Or are they just taking a breather?
Ruth Lea still believes China will be the biggest global economy in 2050. Brazil will also do well. Both will be seen as rich by today's standards. India should also have made "startling progress".
There is bad news for Russia, which will be demographically demolished, along with Germany, Japan and Italy.
Goldman Sachs agrees that China will be number one in 2050, followed by the US, India, Japan, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Germany and the UK.
UK rules OK?
As Ruth Lea admits, anybody predicting how the world will look in 2050 is making "heroic assumptions". By failing to spot Brazil breathing down Britain's neck, HSBC has already gone from hero to zero.
There will be plenty more shocks and surprises over the next 38 years. But if these forecasts are broadly correct, now could be a great entry point for those giants of the future: China, India, Brazil, the US, Korea, Mexico -- and the UK.
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